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  • Writer's pictureThe Mackenzie Group

Real estate market analysis Niagara

The Niagara real estate market has been a focal point in the Ontario housing sector, especially in the wake of the pandemic. With significant price increases and changing market dynamics, understanding the current trends and future predictions is critical for investors, homebuyers, and sellers alike. This article delves into the current state of the Niagara real estate market, the influences shaping its landscape, specific insights into Niagara Falls, and anticipated trends for the year 2023.

Key Takeaways

  • Niagara's real estate market is transitioning towards a seller's market with an 11% year-to-date price increase and a balanced market with 3.5 months of supply.

  • Luxury and recreational properties are in high demand, with buyers from the GTA contributing to market growth and developments in Niagara Falls and Fort Erie impacting housing dynamics.

  • Real estate agents highlight single-detached properties in areas like Beamsville/Grimsby and St. Catharines as the most sought-after, with interest rates being a significant factor for the market.

Current Dynamics of the Niagara Real Estate Market

Recent Market Performance

The Niagara housing market has shown resilience in the face of challenges, with a 70% decline in sales in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdown, followed by a swift recovery. This pattern mirrors trends across Canadian markets. Currently, the market is balanced but is tilting towards a seller's market as home prices have seen an 11% increase year-to-date.

  • Balanced market conditions with a lean towards a seller's market

  • 11% increase in home prices year-to-date

  • Quick recovery post-COVID-19 lockdown

Luxury and Recreational Property Trends

Luxury and recreational properties in Niagara are attracting buyers, particularly those from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), seeking value and lifestyle. The development in the southern regions of Niagara Falls and Fort Erie is poised to further influence this segment of the market.

  • Attraction of GTA buyers seeking value

  • Development in southern Niagara impacting luxury property trends

  • Recreational properties gaining popularity

Predictions for Market Direction

Looking ahead, the Niagara real estate market is expected to favor sellers, influenced by factors such as interest rate cuts and the shift in preferences due to remote work. High-value neighborhoods are being identified as prime investment opportunities, with the market dynamics poised for further growth.

  • Interest rate cuts expected to influence market direction

  • Remote work shaping buyer preferences

  • High-value neighborhoods identified for investment

Influences Shaping the Niagara Housing Landscape

Impact of Interest Rates

Interest rates continue to be a pivotal factor in the Niagara real estate market. As noted by industry experts, the fluctuation of interest rates has a direct impact on buyer affordability and the overall market demand. The trend of rising interest rates is expected to temper housing activity, as higher borrowing costs may deter some potential buyers.

  • Dominant factor: Interest rates significantly influence market conditions.

  • Buyer affordability: Fluctuations affect how much buyers can spend.

  • Market demand: Higher rates could lead to reduced demand.

Influx of GTA Buyers

The Niagara region has seen a significant influx of buyers from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), seeking more affordable housing options and a different lifestyle. This movement has been amplified by the rise in remote work and the desire for more space, contributing to increased demand for larger homes and properties with green space.

  • Affordable housing: Attracts out-of-town buyers.

  • Remote work: Encourages relocation for more space.

  • Lifestyle change: Drives demand for different living environments.

Development and Its Effects on Housing

Development in Niagara faces challenges such as municipal regulations and the need for quicker approval processes. Cutting through bureaucratic red tape is essential for maintaining a steady supply of housing. Changes that allow residents to make more use of their property, like building in-law suites, could benefit the market, especially for young families.

  • Regulatory challenges: Affect the pace of development.

  • Supply maintenance: Essential for market stability.

  • Property utilization: Can provide more housing options.

Niagara Falls Specific Market Insights

Average Prices and Sales Volume

Niagara Falls' real estate landscape has been marked by a significant uptick in average prices, with current figures reaching approximately $693,393. This represents a substantial increase, with monthly and quarterly changes signaling a robust upward trajectory. The sales volume, however, has seen fluctuations, with a notable 70% decline in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdown, followed by a swift recovery. As of the latest data, the median days on market for a home in Niagara Falls is 21 days, indicating a relatively quick turnover for properties.

  • Current average house price: $693,393

  • Monthly change in average price: 33.7%

  • Quarterly change in average price: 75.2%

  • Median days on market: 21 days

Market Activity and Listing Trends

The number of new listings in Niagara Falls has been substantial, with 212 new properties entering the market in the last 28 days. This influx of listings is contributing to a balanced market with 3.5 months of supply. However, experts anticipate a shift towards a seller's market by 2020, driven by continuous demand, particularly from value-conscious GTA buyers. The development in the south end of Niagara Falls and Fort Erie is also expected to influence market activity, potentially leading to increased housing options and competition.

  • New listings in the last 28 days: 212

  • Current months of supply: 3.5

Local Agents' Perspectives on Demand

Real estate professionals in Niagara Falls maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on demand. They observe a steady influx of buyers from the GTA, attracted by the region's affordability and lifestyle offerings. Agents report that both residential and commercial developments are poised to impact the housing market positively. The consensus is that while the market is currently balanced, there is potential for a shift in favor of sellers, given the ongoing trends and development projects.

  • GTA buyers' impact on demand: Significant

  • Expected market shift: Towards a seller's market

Anticipated Trends for Niagara Real Estate in 2023

Price Fluctuations and Forecast

The Niagara real estate market is poised for continued growth, with average prices expected to increase 4% to 6% in the remainder of 2020. This trend is indicative of the region's resilience and the sustained demand for property in the area. Key factors influencing this forecast include:

  • The ongoing appeal of luxury and recreational properties

  • A steady influx of buyers from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

  • The impact of potentially lower mortgage rates

Factors Influencing Buyer Decisions

Buyers in the Niagara region are influenced by a variety of factors, which are expected to shape the market in 2023. These include:

  • The search for more spacious and detached homes post-pandemic

  • The desire for properties with amenities suitable for remote work and leisure

  • The anticipation of mortgage rates coming down over the next 12 to 24 months

Potential for a Shift to a Seller's Market

While the Niagara housing market has been favorable to buyers in recent years, there is potential for a shift towards a seller's market. The 2024 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook report suggests that sales activity is anticipated to rise by 4.5%, with the average sales price for a home in Niagara projected to climb 3.5% to approximately $725,000. This shift could be driven by:

  • Limited housing inventory as demand outpaces supply

  • The sustained interest in the Niagara region as a desirable location

  • The economic recovery post-pandemic, boosting consumer confidence

In conclusion, stakeholders in the Niagara real estate market should prepare for a dynamic year ahead, with opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Staying informed and agile will be key to navigating the anticipated trends of 2023.

As we navigate through the dynamic landscape of Niagara real estate, staying informed about the anticipated trends for 2023 is crucial for making strategic decisions. Whether you're considering buying, selling, or simply exploring investment opportunities, The Mackenzie Group is your trusted guide. Dive deeper into our insights and discover how these trends can impact your real estate journey. Visit our website for comprehensive resources and expert advice tailored to your needs. Let's shape your future in real estate together.

Conclusion

In summary, the Niagara real estate market has demonstrated resilience and growth in the post-pandemic era, with a notable increase in home prices and a swift recovery from initial sales declines. As we look ahead, the market is showing signs of leaning towards a seller's advantage, driven by a balanced supply and demand dynamic and a continued interest in luxury and recreational properties. The region's affordability, coupled with its appeal to value-conscious buyers, particularly from the GTA, is fostering a robust environment for both residential and commercial development. With mortgage rates anticipated to decrease, the Niagara market is poised for further evolution, making it an area to watch for both buyers and sellers. Local trends indicate a strong demand for single-detached homes in specific areas, and while interest rates remain a critical factor, the market's trajectory suggests a steady climb in property values. Industry experts and real estate professionals alike will be keeping a close eye on Niagara as it continues to navigate the changing landscape of Ontario's real estate sector.

Frequently Asked Questions

What has been the recent performance of the Niagara real estate market?

The Niagara real estate market had been very active post-pandemic, with home prices soaring about 27% between 2020 and 2021. However, sales tumbled nearly 7% year-over-year in December, indicating a cooling phase.

How are luxury and recreational properties trending in Niagara?

Luxury and recreational housing markets in Niagara continue to thrive, with buyers seeking larger properties outside of city centres. There is a sustained demand for properties in areas like Beamsville/Grimsby and Crystal Beach/Ridgeway.

What are the predictions for the Niagara real estate market in 2023?

Predictions suggest that Niagara's housing market will experience price fluctuations with an expected increase of 4% to 6% in average prices. Interest rates and development in the region will be significant factors influencing the market.

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